May 25, 2020

Is inflation around the corner? History says “yes.”

From the article: “Policymakers have repeatedly called the battle against the novel coronavirus a war. As in wartime, federal expenditures are rising sharply while tax revenues are being hit by the lockdown. Both World War I and World War II—and, indeed, the Vietnam War—were followed by nasty bouts of inflation. If that happens again, policymakers today being cheered for their swift, decisive action will instead have to answer for their grave lack of foresight.”

Is there another stock market crash coming this summer?

Mark Hubert wrote a recent article at Market Watch, predicting that the market will crash in August. Is he right?

He believes that the market is technically back in a bull market. However, this is based on hope rather than cold hard facts. He points to the Great Depression which saw six bull markets between the 1929 stock market crash and 1939. Not too many people talk about those bull markets.

He also points to sentiment, which points to another low in the U.S. market. The usual pattern in a bear market brings about much pessimism and despair. And were not seeing that. Actually we’re seeing just the opposite right now.

So, when the bear market does finally hit its low, you’re probably going to be looking at putting your money into anything but equities altogether. Maybe you’ll see the market as nothing but a bear trap.

Mark compared sentiment and the market timers he monitors were more scared at the lows of those prior bear markets than they have been of late.